Huntington Ravine has LOW and MODERATE avalanche danger. The Escape Hatch and North Gully have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely EXCEPT IN ISOLATED POCKETS. Normal caution is advised. All other forecast areas in Huntington have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Unstable slabs are possible in steep terrain.

It doesn't happen often around here, but we are actually receiving some "champagne powder". Although we won't get enough to have some Alta skiing we will pick up enough to have some interesting stability effects. The summit reported 5cm (2in) of very light new snow as of 6 this morning. Snow is expected to continue into the afternoon accumulating an additional 5cm (2in) before tapering to snow showers. New densities are hovering between 3-4%! The biggest question is what EXACTLY will happen with the winds. They are forecasted to start the day out of the SW at 16-32kph (10-20mph) before making a rapid shift to come out of the NW and increase to 32-48kph (20-30mph) around 12 noon. We feel it will not take much wind to start loading the new snow into the start zones of both Ravines. With this said it is unlikely much loading will occur till we move above 32kph (20mph). If we move beyond the forecasted wind speeds the snow volume being transported will rise rapidly. With the very low densities we have received a normally minor miscalculation in the forecasted winds will make a significant difference in slab formation. So if we move beyond (48kph (30mph) to 56 or 64 kph(35 or 40mph) expect instability to rise quickly and the danger rating to move to the upper end of their definition and potentially up a degree on the 5 scale system (ie. from Moderate to Considerable). The other major factor will be how rapidly the winds shift occurs. If they move from the SW to the NW quickly don't expect all aspects in the Ravines to become loaded with equal instabilities. I would expect aspects in the lee of NW winds to become the focus for unstable slabs to develop. If an increase in winds occurs in concurrence with a slower shift anticipate instabilities to be more widespread, specifically from NE to SE aspects. Therefore areas such as the Lip are not at Considerable yet, but should be as the afternoon moves along.

EXACTLY how the weather comes in today is still in question. But the development of 'touchy' slabs as we move through the day into tomorrow is more certain. The current wind speeds between 10-15 mph) will have little effect on the blanket of 3-4% snow in the avalanche start zones. As winds increase a denser slab should develop over the top of the unconsolidated 'dust on crust' in many locations. Although I feel the developing slab will also be low density it will be very 'touchy'. If you listen close enough you can hear them whisper, "go ahead.. give me a reason". We feel that any activity that may occur today will be very soft and light and in 90% of the forecast area would not step down to a lower weakness. As more snow and increased winds come in over the next 2-3 days you should be VERY SUSPECT OF THIS LOW DENSITY SNOW BEING BURIED AND BECOMING THE NEXT LIKELY WEAK LAYER FOR OUR NEXT AVALANCHE CYCLE.

THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL IS NOW CLOSED DUE TO THE AVALANCHE PRONE SLOPES JUST BELOW TREELINE. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is improving with every bit of snow we receive. However, expect abrupt waterbars, lots of bushes and rocks hidden under new snow.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.