Once again we are setting up for a very similar situation that we had a couple of weeks ago. A cold crust about 1.0-1.5 cm thick developed due to cold air following the rain 3 days ago. Because of the temperature differences within the snowpack we are developing faceted crystals beneath the crust approximately 1.0mm-1.25mm in size here at Hermit Lake. Over this crust we are currently receiving very light density snow with stellar crystals falling to the size of 6mm in diameter! This is associated with light south winds around 32kph (20mph). The NWS is forecasting 2.5-5cm (1-2in) of snow today, but we are already close to 2.5cm (1in) as of 8:30am. The developing systems are complex which makes accurate weather forecasting quite difficult. Expect the possibility of precipitation to exceed the forecasted amounts during daylight hours today. This is important to watch due to such light densities stacking up like a house of cards waiting for slab to become established over them. With light southerly winds I don't believe this will occur in earnest until tonight and tomorrow as we pick up more accumulation and winds shift to the N and NW. However, if we move beyond 5cm (2in) today expect some light loading particularly on northern aspects and some cross loading of others. If this occurs expect these areas to move towards 'Moderate' avalanche danger. More light density snow is expected tonight with winds wrapping through the E to come from the N by daylight. It currently appears that the shift will continue through tomorrow eventually coming from the W. Expect this to load light crystals into a variety of aspects over low density unconsolidated snow on crust. Tomorrow could be interesting.

Ice climbers should be weary of ice dams and undermined areas. Mountaineers should be ready for very icy snow slopes with the potential for long sliding falls to occur if self-arrest is not achieved quickly. When we say long fall we mean over a 1000 feet in many areas due to the dynamics of friction coefficients between Gore-tex and a slick rain crust. Off trail explorers should certainly have snowshoes; otherwise you probably won't get very far due to the breakable crust. Hikers should have ski poles and crampons for packed trails, as they are unusually slippery. And finally, skiers, boarders, and anyone planning on sliding activities on Mt. Washington should consider another activity. Conditions are VERY HARD AND UNFORGIVING. ALL VISITORS TO STEEP SLOPES SHOULD HAVE CRAMPONS AND AN ICE AXE AND KNOW HOW TO USE THEM EFFECTIVELY IN ORDER TO TRAVEL SAFELY.

THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL IS NOW CLOSED DUE TO THE AVALANCHE PRONE SLOPES JUST BELOW TREELINE. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is VERY SLICK AND HARD due to recent rain followed by freezing temperatures. The rain has also exposed more rocks, bushes and waterbars.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.