| Posted: 9:43 a.m., Friday, December 31, 2004 |
Huntington Ravine will have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain.
With the "wintry mix" moving into the mountains as we speak, the avalanche ratings are posted at where they should be later today. Exactly how the precipitation falls will once again be the critical factor in today's stability. Therefore, areas posted at Moderate and Considerable are not there yet and how quickly they increase will depend on the precipitation type. Temperatures have risen through the evening and are currently at -1C (30F) here at Hermit Lake. Light snow began an hour and a half ago and should persist for several hours before it changes to sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Rain is expected all the way to the summit of Mt. Washington as temperatures are anticipated to make a brief visit to around 2C (35F) before falling again. Rain will be brief on the higher summits, but should influence our avalanche start zones through out both Ravines. Winds out of the WSW and W at 100-130+kph (60-80+mph) will load any new snow into easterly aspects before denser precipitation in the form of sleet and freezing rain add more weight to these areas. This will be followed by rain that will fall on all locales of the mountain. This includes the icy old rain crust where exposed, old slabs on southerly aspects that developed a sun crust yesterday, and pockets of slab on northerly aspects sheltered from direct solar gain. Today's weather will affect each of these areas differently, but the highest concern is two fold. Any new pockets that develop with this morning's snow will have a hard time dealing with the stress of rain later today, but these areas will likely be isolated and not widespread. The greater concern is rain on the slabs sitting on east and southerly aspects in Tuckerman. Predominately these are under and over the Lip, in the Sluice, and in Right Gully. Although areas had an opportunity to consolidate with Thursday's solar radiation, rain will still cause stress making natural activity possible. Rain on the colder slabs of northerly aspects is also something to watch, however, these pockets are smaller than those facing the south. Because of this the consequences of an avalanche will be less significant than any activity that occurs on southerly aspects in Tuckerman Ravine. Total water equivalents should reach around 1.25cm (.5in) through this evening. Dropping temperatures will turn precipitation back to snow tonight into tomorrow morning.
A very slippery rain crust is exposed in a variety areas. Mountaineers should be aware of the potential for long sliding falls to occur on steep terrain if self-arrest is not achieved quickly. Conditions under the new snow are very hard and icy. All visitors should be prepared with crampons and an ice axe.
THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL IS NOW CLOSED DUE TO THE AVALANCHE PRONE SLOPES JUST BELOW TREELINE. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.
The John Sherburne Ski Trail has mixed surface conditions with both a very icy rain crust and new snow. High winds have scoured some locations down to ice while user compaction has preserved snow in other areas. Be prepared for occasional hard slick conditions. Expect some rocks, bushes and waterbars.
As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
chelle Canadienne de risque davalanche.
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