After a bit of a dry spell it appears we will finally get some snow. A storm system is tracking up from the south which is anticipated to arrive in the higher mountains during the afternoon. It should be settled in by early evening bringing 10-18cm (4-7in) of snow to our area. The current predictions depend on which guidance you wish to believe, but with upslope slope precipitation overnight we should see decent accumulations by daybreak. In addition to amounts we are watching the winds closely. At this time it looks like precipitation will initially come in with southerly winds where it should prevail until roughly midnight. As the Low pressure moves to our north and then east the 850 mb (5000ft) level winds should move out of the west during the early morning hours. We expect winds to slowly move through W towards the NW tomorrow. Winds will increase tonight, but then pick up substantially before dawn into the late morning hours before subsiding. West winds between 130-160kph (80-100mph) are plausible. This entire weather scenario will load most aspects in both Ravines with new slab. I would be prepared for avalanche activity tomorrow so expect elevated avalanche danger ratings over the next couple days.

Due to hard surface conditions in many locations mountaineers should be aware of long sliding falls to occur on steep terrain if self-arrest is not achieved quickly. All visitors traveling on angled terrain should be prepared with crampons and an ice axe.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is quite hard and has locked up with a drop in temperatures. We are getting to the point where we need snow badly so bring on the storm. The lower half of the trail is mostly a veneer of hard base intermingled with turf, rocks, bushes, and deep waterbars.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.