Huntington Ravine has MODERATE AND CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The Escape Hatch has Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution is steeper terrain. All other forecast areas have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

It is somewhat unbelievable but I think a drive to Massachusetts for my days off to go skiing is likely. Sad but true, our storm totals pale in comparison to areas just 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of the White Mountains. However, we still have some avalanche concerns with the 8cm (3.2in) of 6.5% snow the Summit received during the overnight. Light precipitation is expected into the afternoon bringing somewhere around 10cm (4in) for total accumulations. Winds are currently out of the NE at 65kph (40mph) and are anticipated to increase and shift to the N later this morning. We expect gusts over 95kph (60mph) this afternoon. Winds may nudge towards the NNW a bit on the compass rose late today, but a shift to the NW shouldn't occur until very late tonight.

NE and N winds will load new denser slabs over unconsolidated snow as winds increase through the day. Expect loading predominately on S and SE aspects and spilling over to E facing slopes through cross loading. North, Damnation, and Yale gullies should approach the upper end of the Considerable rating later today. This is also true of Right Gully, the Sluice, Lip and the N side of the Bowl and Headwall. These areas in Tuckerman have historically approached a High rating with similar circumstances. Although I don't believe we will get there today realize these locations will probably have the greatest instabilities of all our forecast areas. These S and SE aspects also have some substantial facet growth so failure stepping down to this weakness is not out of the realm of possibility. Other areas such as Left Gully and South Gully are on the lowest end of the Considerable rating. We have the most concern over the crossloading potential high in Left Gully and low in South Gully. To stay within the definition of each rating we felt natural activity was still possible in these locations so Considerable was appropriate. Conditions today are making full use of the Considerable rating. Understand slopes with south aspects will develop higher instabilities than those that will be crossloaded even though they are both within the same rating. Hillman's is currently loading as a plume of snow moves off of the Dutchess causing the SE/E aspects to move to the upper end of the Moderate rating. More direct loading of easterly aspects will occur tomorrow as winds move to the NW and W so stay tuned for Monday's advisory.

Very hard icy surface conditions exist in many places on the mountain under thin snow cover. Crampons and an ice axe are a must for safe travel on any angled terrain. With that said self arrest will be very difficult so move slow and methodically.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route. The John Sherburne Ski Trail has improved with new drifted snow, but you should still expect hidden hazards such as water ice and rocks.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.