Yesterday's fine weather with no precipitation made for a beautiful day in the mountains. This trend will continue over the next two days as high pressure settles in for a visit. After so much precipitation and clouds over the past three weeks it feels like such a rare treat. The main problems today are two fold and are directly related to the sunny skies and solar gain. The temperatures in the Ravines are already way above freezing as a mid elevation thermal belt sits between 3300 and 4300 ft. These temperatures will undoubtedly mix with higher and lower elevations as the early morning continues. Temps will rise as eastern faces of the mountain see direct sun. As solar gain increases through the day winds from the NW are expected to subside this afternoon. This could see temperatures rise significantly in protected areas in the ravines. Without the wind to keep snow surfaces cool expect southern faces in particular to heat up substantially. This occurring will be highly dependent on reducing winds and lots of sunshine. Currently strong winds are moving plumes of snow over Right gully and the Dutchess/Hillman's area loading some new snow into lee pockets of N and NW winds. This should dissipate as the forecasted winds relax. This will have great influence on the POTENTIAL OF FALLING ICE IN BOTH TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINES. THIN AND POORLY ATTACHED ICE WILL STRUGGLE TO STAY ATTACHED TO WARMING ROCK OF THE RAVINE WALLS. EXPECT FALLING ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD ON THE MOUNTAIN TODAY. THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE TO SUMMIT VISITORS AS ENORMOUS ICE MASSES CLING TO HIGH BUILDINGS WAITING LIKE COUGARS FOR UNSUSPECTING PREY. SO STAY ALERT UP THERE. Second to icefall is a warming snowpack on south aspects. Some new loading in strong lee pockets will be effected as sun and heat increases. Anticipate some sluffing, "snowballing" and the weakening of the small cornices that hang over southern facing slopes. However, most areas in Tuckerman received wide spread stability tests yesterday with skiers making tracks in Left Gully, the center lower Bowl, Right Gully, and the Upper snowfields on the summit cone. Today's sun will help considerably to consolidate the snowpack for tomorrow but be cautious today and give some of southern slopes some room. Although all areas are considered to have "Moderate" danger these will be quite spatially variable and would be most suspect of southern aspects in both Ravines. If the weather forecast plays today out I expect some areas to drop to Low tomorrow.

It is important to constantly re-evaluate stability as you move through your intended terrain. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

ICEFALL- As is typical this time of the year we are beginning to thaw out a bit so icefall potential is the greatest overall hazard in the ravines today. In addition to icefall hazards ice protection will melt out rapidly as you place a warm screw into melting ice. Today would be a good day to sharpen the tools, re-rack several times and leave ice climbing for another day. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of ice fall.

GENERAL TRAVEL- Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We will have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org very soon.