The summit received 3.2in (8.1cm) of new snow in the past 24 hours with a density of 14.3%. An additional inch or so is expected to fall through the morning hours pushing the amounts to over four inches. The critical factor is the ideal wind direction and velocities we have seen overnight and what is forecasted for the rest of the day. As the cold front approached the winds shifted out of the W around 9pm and began increasing. Over the next several hours the temperatures dropped 10 degrees F and winds continued to shift to the WNW. Winds continued to increase and are currently gusting between 70-75mph (112-120kph). They are expected to move to the NW and retain their current velocities until evening. This precipitation and wind speed scenario equals ideal loading conditions for our easterly aspects in both ravines and the cross-loading of others. Realize that if we pick up more than the forecasted snow amounts expect areas on the upper end of the Moderate rating to move towards Considerable. However, as mentioned in most of this year's early advisories, expect the spatial variability (i.e. stability) to be great from one area to the next so this potential move to Considerable would be quite isolated. Early season brush and rocks are acting as anchors in many areas as well as breaking up the size of snowfields. Some good examples of this exist in the main Bowl of Tuckerman. Near the lower South side, close to the Chute, there is an open snowfield which will act as a good bed surface for today's new snow. But as you move to the North, only 100-150 meters away, the bowl is chopped up by cliff bands. So the larger the snowfield is on easterly aspects the more concern I would have. It is important to re-evaluate stability as you move through your intended terrain and expect it to change constantly. This is especially true during this early season. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

Although we have unbelievable snow coverage routes haven't had much of a chance to mature. We need consistent cold temperatures to form ice which will fill in routes with something to swing into and protect well. This is beginning to happen today as a cold front passage has brought a drop in temperatures.

ICEFALL- As is typical this time of the year we have been thawing out so icefall potential should be kept in mind if we move back into mild conditions. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of ice fall.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We will have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org very soon.