Warm temperatures under sunny skies produced favorable conditions for mountain visitors yesterday. Skiers made runs in Left Gully, the Chute, and an attempt at Connection while the summit saw a healthy dose of mountaineers. Weather conditions have deteriorated since then as clouds and fog currently dominate the area. This will continue today as the threat of rain will increase through the day towards evening. Areas to our south and west hold the potential for thunderstorms so although not likely for the Ravines keep it in mind for later today. The warm weather from yesterday, and this morning, has baked slabs removing most elastic properties. Currently the summit is hovering around 41F degrees while Hermit Lake sits at just over 50F. This will help the snowpack absorb the stress of the forecasted rain easier than if it fell on a cold slab. However, be prepared for the potential of wet sluffs and small point release avalanches during the rainfall this afternoon. If rainfall exceeds the forecasted amounts or has high intensity expect this to raise the avalanche danger above "Low". The weather forecast doesn't deem this likely, but be ready to adjust your plans quickly if this occurs. During the overnight winds will begin shifting from a southerly direction to eventually end up from the NW tomorrow. This will also be associated with a dramatic increase in velocities and a temperature drop. Anticipate the precipitation overnight and tomorrow to be both a classic "wintry mix" and snow at higher elevations. We will discuss this tomorrow morning, but be prepared for an increasing avalanche danger.

Avalanche activity from several days ago demonstrates very well that we are in full winter conditions in the higher mountains. If you are planning a trip you need to be ready to deal with winter conditions including avalanche terrain. The calendar may not say so, but we have mid-winter snow depths in some locations and many avalanche paths are well developed. While traveling in avalanche terrain you need to be mindful of changing conditions. You may travel through snowfields broken by rocks and bushes and quickly enter a larger snow slope. Both should be treated with respect during times of instability. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

ICEFALL potential should be kept in mind as rain and more mild conditions prevail today. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of icefall. I know that many of you are ice climbers who just can't wait to get out on some early season ice. This time of year can offer great ice climbing on the mountain, but not this year. Warm temperatures haven't allowed ice to develop enough to create good ice climbing conditions. My advice is to be patient and keep sharpening you screws.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Sign yourself or do your Holiday shopping early and register a loved one up now!