Over the past 24 hours the summit received 0.3" (.75cm) of rain and no snow or frozen precipitation. This deviated from the forecast for the period, but what is holding true is the temperature and wind forecast. Last night winds moved from the SW to the W and increased substantially. Winds are currently gusting to 95mph (150kph) and are expected to continue increasing a bit into the afternoon. Along with this will be a significant drop in temperatures. By later today models are showing temperatures moving down into the teens as winds move more northwesterly and gust over 100mph (160kph). Upslope moisture is predicted to give us up to an inch of new snow. So far this not playing out but keep your eyes open for any isolated pockets that may develop. Although anything that develops would be small it is amazing how much an inch can pile into with 100 mph (160kph) winds. If you decide to go above treeline today expect full winter conditions. One major hazard today will be gusty winds in combination with a slick snow surface. Dropping temps will freeze up a great deal of freewater in the snowpack slowly creating concrete today into tomorrow. As it develops anticipate a breakable crust that will be variable from location to location. Travel with caution while the freeze up occurs as similar conditions have broken many legs on Mt. Washington. Gore-tex on steep inclines slides extremely well so obviously crampons and an ice axe is an absolute must for safe travel.

Over the next 48 hours a system will be marching across the northern United States from the Pacific Northwest. This will give us a wet middle of the week with the potential for quite a bit of frozen precipitation at higher elevations. It currently looks like mostly rain for the valleys. We will watch this closely and keep you posted.

Avalanche activity from several days ago demonstrates very well that we are in full winter conditions in the higher mountains. If you are planning a trip you need to be ready to deal with winter conditions including avalanche terrain. The calendar may not say so, but we have mid-winter snow depths in some locations and many avalanche paths are well developed. While traveling in avalanche terrain you need to be mindful of changing conditions. You may travel through snowfields broken by rocks and bushes and quickly enter a larger snow slope. Both should be treated with respect during times of instability. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

As is typical this time of the year we have been in and out of warm weather so icefall potential should be kept in mind. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of icefall.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Sign yourself or a loved one up now!