Over the past 6 hours the summit received 2.8" (7cm) of new snow with a density of 10%. Although moisture will move out of the area this morning another inch or two is possible. New snow is being brought in on W winds between 40-60 mph (65-95kph) with higher gusts. I believe we will be on the upper end of Moderate for most easterly aspects by midday. If we get an additional 2 inches (5cm) or more large snow fields have the potential to move up a rating to "CONSIDERABLE". It currently appears unlikely that more than 2 inches (5cm) will fall, but it's important to remember that a number of areas will be quite close to the "Considerable" definition. Due to the variability of early season surface conditions and the size of snowfields realize stability will be quite different from one area to the next. So keep in mind that although many areas will not approach the "Considerable" definition of "natural avalanches being possible and human triggered avalanches being probable", but other areas like Left gully, the Chute, pockets on the Headwall, O'Dells and Central gully in Huntington may possess instabilities true to the rating. The main concern with the new snow loading in today is the hard icy surface conditions in the lee areas of deposition. Expect the bonding at the old-new interface to be less than ideal. Due to variable conditions do frequent stability tests and don't be happy with one set of results.

The system moving across the northern US will move into the area late tomorrow. As the Low moves off to our north winds will become SW-SSW between 40-60 mph (65-95 kph)and we will see moisture begin. The temperature regimes are awfully close to freezing so it is a bit early to tell, but it looks like the mountains will begin as snow possibly moving to sleet. The heavier densities will be associated with the passing of the Low as winds become NW and increase. It may be a very interesting stability situation and avalanche cycle. We will discuss this in depth tomorrow.

The last avalanche cycle demonstrates very well that we are in full winter conditions in the higher mountains. If you are planning a trip you need to be ready to deal with winter conditions including avalanche terrain. The calendar may not say so, but we have mid-winter snow depths in some locations and many avalanche paths are well developed. While traveling in avalanche terrain you need to be mindful of changing conditions. You may travel through snowfields broken by rocks and bushes and quickly enter a larger snow slope. Both should be treated with respect during times of instability. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

As is typical this time of the year we have been in and out of warm weather so icefall potential should be kept in mind. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of icefall.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Sign yourself or a loved one up now!