If you plan on traveling in avalanche terrain today, you will need to keep a very close eye on the weather and the potential for increasing avalanche danger. A weather maker is currently entering our area and the first snowflakes have just begun to fall on the summit of Mt. Washington. We have the potential for .8" (2 cm) of liquid equivalent to fall in the form of snow, freezing rain and potentially rain in the mountains by 6 pm tonight. Overnight all areas will probably turn to rain until the system pulls out sometime tomorrow. The models are now in pretty good agreement as to how this system will play out and the resulting information has led to our decision to post areas at Low today. We are expecting the Summit to receive 1 to 3" (2.5 to 7.6 cm) of snow through the day before turning over to mixed precipitation early this evening. This snow will be accompanied by SW winds 20 to 40 mph (32 to 65 kph). These winds will be shifting to the south by this evening. Warm air aloft will be responsible for the mixed precipitation late this afternoon and tonight which will eventually push the cold air out changing us to all rain by tomorrow. There are a lot of variables playing into today's weather forecast and our advisory is based on the probability of the weather playing out as discussed. With that said, let's take a look at the bulls-eye data. We are expecting snow, we are expecting winds out of the SW, we are expecting a change over to rain and we know that the warm air aloft and it's timing is critical to how much snow we get and when precipitation turns to rain. Slight variations in the forecast of this bulls-eye data could have us looking at rain on new slabs by the end of the day. If this occurs expect some isolated areas to move into the Considerable rating due natural avalanche activity being "possible", particularly on NE aspects.

Keep in mind that we have mid-winter snow depths in some locations and many avalanche paths are well developed. With the right winds, it doesn't take much snow to create unstable conditions. While traveling in avalanche terrain you need to be mindful of changing snow conditions as well as changing terrain conditions. You may travel through snowfields broken by rocks and bushes and quickly enter a larger snow slope. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

Icefall remains a concern in the Ravines, especially as frozen precipitation gives way to rain. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of icefall.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, practice, and spend a couple bucks on a fresh set of high quality batteries. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Sign yourself or a loved one up now!