Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines CURRENTLY have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. We should be at the upper end of the Moderate rating this afternoon flirting with the stability world of "Considerable". Read on for an explanation and more clarification.

Well here we go again. A quick moving clipper system will punch us where it counts today....the mountains! Unfortunately we won't get the several feet of Lake effect snow that some Great Lake States will receive over the next 48 hours, but we will get a quick 4-8 inches (10-20cm) through the day into early evening. This should be a quick hitter so you can expect precipitation to be heavy at times. Most of the snowfall will occur with moderate SW through SE winds between 30-50+mph as the system moves our way from the Midwest. As the center of the Low reaches us this evening it should begin tracking directly north. As this occurs winds will increase and move clockwise back to the W when it will load easterly aspects overnight and into tomorrow. Cold air will also be sucked in by this passing weather maker. This entire event will load new snow on most of the primary aspects in both Ravines. Although this will present stability concerns today the greater concern will be for tomorrow. The southerly wind will predominately load northern aspects today such as Left gully in Tuckerman and South Gully and O'Dells in Huntington. As the winds wrap back to the W very late today loading will increase on our larger easterly aspects. Today's and tomorrow's loading will occur on snowfields that already have enormous stability variability. Yesterday's storm created very deep pillows on the Headwall and strong lee pockets. Surface conditions varied from needing crampons one minute to being chest deep in new snow the next. As we move into the afternoon today expect the avalanche danger to move close to Considerable from the upper end of Moderate as the majority of the expected precipitation should occur between noon and 4pm. If snow accumulations come in earlier or exceed the forecast expect the avalanche danger to move to Considerable within daylight hours today. If the clipper plays out as expected I believe we will be quite close to Considerable, but won't bump up from the upper end of Moderate till the overnight hours. Saying this still be very alert to today's spatial variability. As we move from a Moderate avalanche danger to Considerable realize stability within these definitions will vary widely and anticipate stability test results to be quite different from one place to the next.

A number of avalanche paths are well developed for this time of the year. While traveling in avalanche terrain you need to be mindful of changing conditions. You may travel through snowfields broken by rocks and bushes and quickly enter a larger snow slope. Both should be treated with respect during times of instability. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, practice, and spend a couple bucks on a fresh set of high quality batteries. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Sign yourself or a loved one up now!