A major weather maker will be providing the mountains with plenty of rain over the next two days. (Pardon me as I wipe my tears away.) Heavy rain is expected to arrive late tonight and stick around through most of the day tomorrow before changing over to snow late tomorrow as the system exits the region. We may see 2" (5 cm) or more of rain by the time it's all said and done. On a positive note, it looks like we may see some snow at the end of the week. There is a chance of snow showers on Friday and Saturday and some forecasts are suggesting the potential for the mountains to see some accumulation. It is a stretch at this point, but it gives as all a little something to look forward to anyway. As mentioned, the rain is expected later tonight, which is good news for today's stability. The Summit has been above freezing for the past 24 hours and has only recorded .12" (.3 cm) of liquid in the past 24 hours. These warm temperatures and light rain have helped settle the slabs that are scattered around the Ravines. With warm temperatures and light rain in the forecast for today we will see a gradual increase in the amount of free water in the snow pack. This gradual increase doesn't make us too nervous but it will be a factor once heavy rain starts pounding on the snow. Heavy rain will rapidly add water, heat, weight and lubrication to the snow pack in addition to the existing free water. In short, expect rapidly decreasing stability with the onset of heavy rain. This will affect your plans if you are thinking of heading into avalanche terrain tomorrow. With the current weather forecast, you should expect the potential for natural avalanche activity tomorrow.

Warm temperatures, heavy rain and flooding will all contribute to the potential for ice fall over the next few days. Many people have been injured or killed by icefall on Mt. Washington. Make sure you know what is above you and have a plan for what you will do if icefall occurs. Make sure you have a big rock to hide behind if you need to linger under ice.

A variety of snowfields exist in both Ravines ranging from isolated pockets to large gullies. Large snowfields and isolated pockets of instability both have their dangers. If a snowfield is big enough to recreate on it's big enough to avalanche. Remember that early season conditions can produce some interesting activity so take this rainy week to dust off the equipment. Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, practice, and spend a couple bucks on a fresh set of high quality batteries. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Sign yourself or a loved one up now!