Light snow began in the mountains a couple of hours ago and is accumulating more rapidly than expected. The snow amount forecasts are bobbing and weaving back and forth as models come into agreement. The latest projection for communities just south of Mt. Washington are 3-5" (7.5-12.5cm) but I will go out on a limb and say we will exceed this forecast. I am biased in the sense that more snow is always good, but model evidence is also pointing to picking up a bit more than the current forecast. This system will be a quick hitter as intensities pick up late this morning into this afternoon. Summit winds should stay out of the SSW to the WSW through daylight hours before shifting to the NW late in the day. This wind shift is also associated with an increase in velocities. Early tomorrow winds will move back to the W and diminish for a fairly nice weather day on Saturday. Once again it will be very important to focus on the white snowpack and not the blue sky as instability may be a serious concern for mountain travelers over the weekend.

Light precipitation with moderate SW winds will put down a blanket of loose snow on the old surface in many locations. As snowfall and winds increase slabs will begin building in the lee of these southerly winds. Loading will affect all aspects in both Ravines as winds wrap towards the NW late today into tomorrow morning. We will have high winds for a period before they subside by daybreak. The forecast is calling for NW winds to hit 100mph (160kph), but if it does it should be short lived and in the form of extreme gusts. So.... the bulls-eye issues for today and tomorrow are as follows. Light unconsolidated snow will lay down on the old surface which is an icy crust in many locations. This low density loose snow will be the possible weak layer at the old surface and new slab interface. Winds will wrap and load slabs on all aspects of our forecast area. Wind speeds overnight will make an enormous difference whether many slopes become scoured or hold significant instabilities for the weekend. We will wait to see exactly 1. How much snow we get, and 2. What winds speeds are reached, how long they are sustained, and are they brief gusts or constant. Anticipate a variety of aspects to hold instabilities tomorrow morning. It's critical that you seek out NEW avalanche information in the morning and be flexible with your plans. The mountain isn't going anywhere so you can always come back another day.

The hard old surface should be recognized as a potential hazard for travelers on the mountain. Most slopes are very icy so as always crampons and an ice axe are essential for travel on open terrain of any steepness. Self arrest will only be effective if executed immediately after a slip otherwise speed and the snow density may make attempts futile. Also remember that many summer trails go through avalanche terrain. Summer trails are for summer! Use safe travel practices.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, practice, and spend a couple bucks on a fresh set of high quality batteries. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in the Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Christmas is coming soon so sign yourself or a loved one up now!