Tuckerman Ravine CURRENTLY has MODERATE and LOW avalanche danger. The Lip, Headwall and Bowl have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. Hillman's Highway, The Lower Snowfields, The Little Headwall, Right Gully and Left Gully have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely EXCEPT in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

Huntington Ravine CURRENTLY has MODERATE and LOW avalanche danger. South, Odell's, and Central gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other forecast areas have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely EXCEPT in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

It's hard to look a gift horse in the mouth, but this latest storm moving in late today needs a close look right in the teeth. As I mentioned yesterday it looks like olde St. Nick is planning on dropping us a big ole sack of coal. The exact details of this storm are yet to become completely clear however it is quite evident that all elevations will see their fair share of ... oh how I hate to say it....rain. This complex system has generated below average confidence for NWS meteorologists with respect to precipitation type. The big question is how much of what precipitation will fall and exactly when. Upper elevations are walking the thin line of freezing temperatures so a lot will have to do with the final outcome of Arctic air in Quebec and how far it drops south in latitude. This will ultimately effects how much warming occurs in our area. The system is moving in from the Ohio River Valley and should begin affecting our area late this afternoon. Rain will dominate the valleys initially before turning to freezing rain later. There is a chance that it will affect snow stability near the end of daylight hours today. Valleys should see moisture begin between 2 and 5 this afternoon with the summits starting a hair earlier. The first slap of precipitation should be in the form of snow showers at upper elevations, but remember if temperature regimes come in a bit warmer than is currently expected rain MAY occur in the avalanche start zones before nightfall. If this does occur be prepared for a rapid rise in the avalanche danger. As the system becomes entrenched overnight higher elevations will likely see periods of wet snow, rain, and freezing rain/ice pellets. This will continue into most of Monday until colder air is anticipated to change precipitation back to snow in the mountains with 3-8" (7.5-20cm) expected. The wide accumulation range reflects the uncertainty of temperatures the models are providing. One thing we know is we will get a lot of water equivalent from this system as some southern areas may see some flooding. Our local valleys are expecting .75-1.35" (1.9-3.3cm) of melted water by the time this Low moves out into the Maritimes. What exact avalanche problems it will create tonight and tomorrow will depend on a number of factors. Will a substantial ice lens form?, will we get substantial rain?, will new snow bond to the old surface or will it fall on a new ice layer? These will be discussed Monday morning, but be prepared for an increasing avalanche danger once precipitation begins today and through tomorrow. As mentioned yesterday, I don't want to overstate our instabilities right now, but do want to impress that they do exist out there so keep at least one eye on a changing snowpack as you travel through your intended route. Warming temperatures over the past day have helped stabilize our colder slabs. But the factor today will be if we receive rain during daylight. Rain affects all aspects and doesn't depend on wind direction as the main instability consideration. The time tested statement "If it's raining in avalanche terrain it's time to go home" should always be remembered. It may be a good idea to put off using those new Holiday toys for a couple of days.

THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL IS CLOSED DUE TO THE AVALANCHE PRONE SLOPES JUST BELOW TREELINE. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.

The Sherburne Ski Trail has top to bottom coverage though it is quite thin in places. Expect rocks and abrupt waterbars along the way. Unfortunately I would expect the incoming rain to affect thin areas dramatically. When tempertures become cold again expect a hard, unforgiving, and leg screaming journey from Hermit Lake to Pinkham.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.