The storm that moved into our area yesterday is moving a little slower than previously anticipated so the colder temperatures and snow have been bumped back into this afternoon. Summit snow began around 7pm last night giving us 3.7" (9.4cm) before turning to freezing rain around 4am. This generated a thin breakable crust over new snow at the upper most elevations of our highest mountains. Over the last few hours the summit has gone several degrees above freezing and has just dropped below again as the Low pressure is directly overhead. Temperatures should slowly drop through the day reaching the teens by dark. Along with this winds have shifted and dropped to the single numbers, but should increase a bit and remain southerly until very late in the day as they back around out of the north. Colder air will move rain back to snow above 4000ft during the morning hours, but we expect the potential for more liquid precipitation in avalanche terrain before this occurs. These morning hours are the main reason for today's Considerable rating. High density snow and some rain may have fallen on surface snow that was already above freezing. This along with additional liquid this morning increases stress on the snowpack by loading, lubricating, and melting bonds between bonded crystals. As temperatures fall through the day the freezing line will drop in elevation slowly locking up the snowpack. A thickening surface crust will add stability to the existing snowpack. A complication to this is any new snowfall that occurs with S winds. Only a couple of inches (5cm) are expected, but it may act as an insulating layer thereby slowing the freezing process of the snowpack below. All in all it's a complex situation today and the avalanche danger will be changing due to the timing of temperatures hitting certain elevations and what type of precipitation falls during the freeze up. (Or will the freeze up occur in critical start zones during a duration of no precipitation?) These are all critical factors that are yet to be determined. Generally we are most concerned about natural avalanches being POSSIBLE this morning and trending towards a more stable snowpack later in the day.

THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL IS CLOSED DUE TO THE AVALANCHE PRONE SLOPES JUST BELOW TREELINE. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.

The Sherburne Ski Trail has top to bottom coverage though it is quite thin in places. Expect rocks and abrupt waterbars along the way. When tempertures become cold again expect a hard, unforgiving, and leg screaming journey from Hermit Lake to Pinkham.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.