Mount Washington will begin showing some teeth today as a quick moving system gives us a shot of winter. Upwards of 3" (7.5 cm) of snow is expected today with a shifting and increasing wind. Winds are currently out of the S but will begin the slow progression to the NW just after dark. Increasing wind velocities will also accompany the shift and should be gusting 70-75mph (110-120kph) by late in the day exceeding 100mph (160kph) during the overnight. These conditions will work together very well today to load new slab in both Ravines. As the winds wrap a variety of aspects will become deposition zones for blowing snow. New slabs will form on a number of areas that already contain the instabilities we have been discussing over the past several days. Slabs have held onto elastic energy which was witnessed again yesterday in the form of long shooting cracks. The weak layer under these slabs are consistently found to be cold loose unconsolidated snow. This unconsolidated layer has been up to 6" (15cm) thick causing the easy collapse and shooting cracks in the slabs above. If natural avalanche activity occurs later today or during the overnight in the newly loaded snow I could see fracture and failure stepping down to this unconsolidated layer. This all adds up to an increasing avalanche danger primarily on E facing aspects as winds increase later today. Growing slabs will begin on N aspects this morning and wrap through eastern facing slopes to SE aspects as the day continues. This afternoon loading will be focused on the older instabilities just discussed which reside mostly on E through SE aspects. This will cause these areas to be on the upper end of Considerable this afternoon. It is plausible we will be leaning towards "High" from the Headwall ice through the Sluice in Tuckerman late tonight as winds begin reaching maximum velocity.

We watched two individuals scare us silly yesterday afternoon as we witnessed them boot up the slope that turned us around on Saturday. They were about 100 feet apart directly in a vertical line under and over one another. We grabbed our packs, checked our radios, and got Cutler our avalanche search dog ready. As the slope steepened they backed down due to difficult going in "deep snow that kept breaking away in chunks". The slope was kind and let them walk away without incident, which actually surprised us. We talked to them later and they discussed large shooting cracks and settling. Basically they didn't know a thing about avalanches, knew that the rating was "Considerable" but didn't know what that meant, thought they were in another location-perhaps Right Gully, the list goes on. Remember to use the resources available to you and ask questions. In avalanche terrain ignorance is bliss until it's to late. They broke every safe travel rule. (1. One at a time, 2. Never travel over or under your partner, and 3. Have a plan when it all goes bad. They didn't follow any of these.) We love helping people stay safe by assisting with their travel plans in avalanche terrain so seek us out. We are here for you so use us as a resource.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route.

The Sherburne Ski Trail is open and it's very thin in places. Expect new snow over a hard and unforgiving icy base. One person will say it's tough going and another will say it's good so it's all a matter of perspective right now. Today's snow will help, but be cautious.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.