| Posted: 8:51 a.m., Thursday, January 19, 2006 |
Huntington Ravine has LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely EXCEPT IN ISLOTED POCKETS. Normal caution is advised.
The weather has once again hit the reset button in the Ravines. Weather's variables never cease to amaze me and the challenges human beings face to predict the natural world. Yesterday was no exception. The weather models and the NWS were confronted with temperatures that exceeded their expectations. Missing the mark by several degrees turned the forecasted snow in the mountains to all rain, and lots of it! The change over at 3800ft occurred yesterday at around 9am and proceeded to soak us all through the day. Periods of heavy intensity during the afternoon brought water up quickly as brooks and channels were pushed to their banks melting snow along the way. Although we lost snow we were able to salvage the snow in angled terrain due to last weekend's rain. The rain that we saw on Saturday was just enough to open up channels under the snow without creating any major blowouts, such as the waterfall near the Lip. Yesterday's quick heavy burst took advantage of those channels as we exceeded the last rain event by over .5" (1.25cm). Now we are ready for an even larger rain event. I hope that didn't just jinx us. Around 8pm last night the summits changed back over to snow as the winds wrapped and brought in colder air. Winds gusting from 100-120mph (160-195kph), and dropping temperatures in the singles, have dramatically altered conditions since yesterday. The 4.1" (10cm) of new snow overnight has blown into very strong lee areas protected by high winds and piled up to cause some new instabilities. Although old surface exists in Tuckerman in a number of locations new snow dominates the coverage causing us to give it a Moderate rating. You will see some protected areas over your knee deep in new slab with some elastic properties. Some examples of new instabilities can be found in the Chute, under the Lip, in the Lip, and some locations in the Sluice. Due to high winds most of Huntington is scoured, but be watchful for isolated pockets. We are also once again is a textbook facet growth situation. For you snow geeks out there it is a great time to be digging around and pulling out your mini microscope. Rain completely obliterated old facets that grew since Saturday's rain and generated isothermal conditions in the upper snow pack. As temperatures plummeted overnight a surface crust 2-3cm thick quickly solidified over rapid facet growth. Facets were found this morning between 1 and 1.5mm over saturated snow having upwards of 15% liquid water by volume (funicular regime). We will continue to see rapid growth until the temperatures warm up again tomorrow. We will watch how it effects stability.
THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. Mountaineering skills and equipment are required for safe travel on this route. Expect very hard icy conditions on all angle terrain. A quick self arrest is critical if you fall.
The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with very thin cover and varying conditions. Expect bare ground, water ice, deep waterbars, some running water, and hidden water channels that can grab a ski tip very quickly.
This Advisory is one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with safe travel techniques, snow stability assessments, an understanding of weather's effect on the snowpack, and proficiency in avalanche rescue. Anticipate changing avalanche danger when actual weather for the Advisory period differs from the NWS forecast and realize changing conditions and local variations may occur. Keep in mind that it’s impossible to accurately predict natural events, such as avalanches, in every instance.
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
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