Well once again warm temperatures and rain are going to dominate the weather in the mountains beginning late today and then through the week. Rain is expected to move in during the overnight into Sunday giving us in the neighborhood of just over a half of an inch (1.25cm) of water. Rain Monday will subside late and taper into the midweek before another system moves in for the weeks end. Keep an eye on the chance of some frozen precipitation in the higher elevations over the next 5 days, but unfortunately it should be mostly rain. Generally speaking it should a rather unpleasant week for mountain travel. This weather has the potential to cause a variety of issues for folks traveling into the Ravines. The first is the potential for avalanche activity associated with rain. There is potential for the rain to trigger slab and wet loose avalanches in some locations in the Ravines. While most avalanche paths are not well developed, it would still be wise to stay away from the snowfields and gullies that have filled in during snow events. Between Wednesday and Friday our snowpack has received several freeze thaw cycles and 1.29" (3.3cm) of rain. This will cause the current snowpack to be more resilient to the future forecasted rain. So although the avalanche potential is substantially lower than it was 48-72 hours ago it is certainly worth watching precipitation amounts with a weary eye. The other major concern associated with the warm and rainy forecast is the increased potential for icefall to occur. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger under ice. Have a plan in mind concerning what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. If you are anxious to get out climbing early season ice, my advice is to be patient and give it time as we should loose quite a bit more ice this week. The underlying rock will also absorb heat from warm rain so give any new ice some time to attach securely when it begins to reform.

We are absolutely in early winter in the high mountains so don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs are buried with snow in many areas and require winter gear, i.e. winter clothes, ice axe, crampons, avalanche beacons, shovels, and probes. Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, install some fresh high quality alkaline batteries, and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We will soon have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.