The wet stretch continues as periods of heavy rain are once again expected today with a possibility of thunderstorms. Digital forecasts are expecting .43-.83 inches (1.1-2.1 cm) of liquid. Ahh, November in New England. (As the eternal optimist rather than focus on the warm precipitation I think about a great snowy October, a wet November...maybe we have a precipitation trend beginning. However, the realist stops me there and keeps me from any broad statements about the winter.) The rest of the week will continue to be wet although moisture will vary greatly depending on the day. All the major models are in agreement that freezing temperatures should return for the weekend with seasonal norms being likely. There continues to be a remote chance for the rain to trigger slab and wet loose avalanches in some locations in the Ravines. Rain will continue to melt snowfields reducing their size, but also continues to bring load and melting creating additional freewater in the snowpack. Within 2-3 days we will have been above freezing with rain for a week. This is a double-edged sword. This event has the ability to stabilize and consolidate the snowpack due to the early season size of snowfields and the amount of anchors that still exist. But it can also overload an isolated snowfield that still possesses buried ice layers that have not yet melted in the isothermal snowpack. With that said I believe we are on a stabilizing trend though it is certainly worth watching future precipitation amounts with at least one eye.

The other major concern associated with the warm and rainy forecast is the increased potential for icefall to occur. Most major ice has already come down over the past several days, but some potential still exists. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger under ice. Have a plan in mind concerning what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. If you are anxious to get out climbing early season ice, my advice is to be patient and give it time as we should loose some more ice this week. Mid range forecast models are anticipating temperatures in the teens at the higher elevations over the weekend and into the start of the next workweek. Remember that the underlying rock will still be warm from a week of warm rain so give any new ice some time to attach securely when it begins to reform.

We are absolutely in early winter in the high mountains so don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs are buried with snow in many areas and require winter gear, i.e. winter clothes, ice axe, crampons, avalanche beacons, shovels, and probes. Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, install some fresh high quality alkaline batteries, and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We will soon have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.