Here we go again. Finally some moisture, but the kind we like to see in the summer after planting tomatoes. Rain. Today will be a reasonable day as a slight consolation to the wintry mix that is expected to enter the area Friday evening. Freezing rain and sleet will persist into the morning and move to rain all the way to the higher summits during the day on Saturday. As temperatures drop during the overnight into Sunday upslope moisture should hit the mountains with some snow. It should be just enough to cover up any slick ice for a weary boot. Liquid equivalents of freezing rain, sleet, and rain before the snow are forecasted to be up to .75" (2cm). How it will affect the current snowpack and avalanche conditions will depend greatly on temperatures and how much actual rain we receive in the start zones between 4500 and 5000ft. The focused concern will be on new snow loading from this week that has deposited on top of blue ice in some Huntington gullies, but mostly in the Headwall and lower Bowl of Tuckerman Ravine. Rain adds load and therefore stress to the snowpack, melts bonds and creates additional freewater, and lubricates the interface at an impermeable layer in this case being blue water ice. Although instabilities will be isolated it would still be wise to stay away from the snowfields and gullies that have filled in during recent snow while it's raining on Saturday. Also give some consideration to Saturday night's temperature drop and wind shift associated with snow. The rain soaked snow surface will freeze as West winds move upslope snow onto eastern aspects. Anticipate a poor bond at the interface so be skeptical of any new snow pockets on Sunday. The largest snowfields that currently exist are in Left Gully and above the southern part of the Headwall. Smaller pockets are scattered around other parts of Tuckerman as well including in the Lip. Remember it only takes a small area underfoot to give way to cause some dire results. Don't focus all your attention on the size of an avalanche, but on the consequences of what will happen to you. If you plan on doing some ice climbing realize ice is still thin in many areas. If you do intend to climb leave the pickets at home and bring rock gear with a focus on small protection.

Besides snow instability the other major concern associated with the rainy forecast is the increased potential for icefall to occur.

Don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely without the right equipment. Be ready for the conditions you'll face with appropriate winter gear including winter clothes, ice axe, crampons, avalanche beacons, shovels, and probes. Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, install some fresh high quality alkaline batteries, and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course.

Avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter are now on our website, tuckerman.org.