Since last weekend's rain which stabilized the snowpack at that time we have received 8.3" (21cm) of snow of varying densities on the summit. Some southern winds were associated with new loading earlier in the week, but most snow amounts were brought in on our prevailing NW and W winds. This all adds up to a changing landscape in the Ravines. New snow has made the mountain look like winter again, but I can't candy coat it we are still quite thin and behind schedule. With that said if someone wanted to find snow instability they could. We are getting closer to using the 5 scale danger rating system of "Low" through "Extreme", however the current situation still calls for a General Advisory as being most appropriate. Both Ravines saw lots of traffic yesterday with multiple snowfields getting new boot tracks. Climbers will often link sections of ice together by crossing small snowfields in Tuckerman. Based on winds, aspect, terrain and snowpack each small pocket will have varying degrees of stability. You must keep your avalanche eyes open and assess each new snowfield independently. It is critical that you focus on the consequences of what will happen to you if an avalanche occurs and not completely on their size. The majority of our snow coverage in the Ravines could only produce relatively small avalanches although the results would be dire if you were brought over rocks and cliffs. The Left Gully and the Chute have redeveloped quickly and are 2 of our largest snowfields on the mountain and based on size alone have the potential to create our largest avalanches.

A clipper system is moving into the mountains as I type and we currently have flurries at Hermit Lake. The models differ considerably on the final snow amounts we are likely to receive over the next 24 hours but 2-4" (5-10cm) is a safe bet. Winds out of the WNW will increase through the day gusting over 65 mph (105kph) this afternoon. New loading will occur as the day progresses so expect some isolated pockets of instability by late in the day. Your decision-making and route selection in avalanche terrain should also consider that it's a holiday weekend and more triggers are running around the mountain than usual. Always consider who may be above and below you!

By now you should have refreshed your avalanche skills, installed some fresh high quality alkaline batteries in your avalanche beacon, and mastered its use. Don't forget your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course.

Avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter are now on our website, tuckerman.org.