Huntington Ravine is still under a General Avalanche Advisory. A General Advisory is issued when instabilities are isolated within the entire forecast area. However it's important to realize that avalanche activity may occur within these locations before the issuance of a 5-scale forecast. This is a critical fact to remember. Under a General Advisory you need to make your own avalanche stability assessments before venturing into any open slopes.

What can I say to cheer us all up about the current state of winter with the impending rain for the days ahead? Unfortunately not too much, but I'll try once I deliver the bad news. Rain showers and warming temperatures will enter our area today and increase on both accounts through tomorrow. This will be reality on all terrain regardless of elevation. The heaviest precipitation amounts should occur this evening and tomorrow morning. Record temperatures are expected around the State in numerous locations. Until some good mixing occurs through the day a mid elevation thermal band will exist which is currently presenting some of this regions warmest temperatures. The 4000 foot level on Mt. Washington is currently presenting a temperature of 46F (8 C)! This is quite a ways from the summit's long term average of 6F (-15C). Valleys are expected to be in the mid-50's F (13C) tomorrow. All this will once again create some havoc on the mountain. The good news you ask? OK...ummm...uhhhh. Let me think.....Well Sunday's forecast is predicting sun. And once cold temperatures return this week ice will begin growing rapidly and snow is in the forecast beginning Monday.

The Considerable forecast today in Tuckerman is focused on natural avalanches being possible. This is greatly dependent on the onset and intensity of rain. The digital forecast is predicting up to .85" (2.15cm) of liquid for the entire rain event over the next 2 days. As we have mentioned many times already this year rain on snow creates 1. Additional load therefore stress 2. Melts existing bonds in the snowpack diminishing both tensile and shear strength as it moves through layers. 3. Creates additional freewater as it melts the frozen structure. And 4. Lubricates layers that offer some impermeability to the moving liquid reducing the shear strength rapidly. Based on this and due to our tremendous variability around the Ravine we have a peppering of instability concerns today, but most exist on strong lee SE aspects. The Lip and the Sluice and some pockets below the Headwall ice are the areas to be the most weary of once rain begins. Yesterday's forecast fell apart as the expected sunny conditions didn't come until late in the day. This offered little help to stabilize these areas of slab. But the warm temperatures overnight have done a great deal towards stabilizing the Ravine start zones. This will take rain longer to begin a natural avalanche cycle, but I would expect it to occur over the next 24 hours. It is quite possible for this to occur overnight into early Saturday morning. If nothing has moved by tomorrow you may see a High avalanche posting for some areas on Saturday. In Huntington Ravine, where we are still under a general advisory, an overall lack of snow only allows for isolated issues. Examples of these are pockets of slab that exist in the top of Yale and Damnation. A general advisory does not mean you don't have to think about avalanches.

Warm temperatures and rain will increase the danger of falling ice through the weekend in both Ravines. Weakening will be more and more of an issue the longer we remain above freezing. The summit should remain above 32F (0C) for the next 48-72 hours.

IF ALL GOES WELL WITH COMPUTER SYSTEMS WE WILL BEGIN OUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON "WEEKEND UPDATE" LATE TODAY. IT WILL NOT BE A NEW AVALANCHE ADVISORY, BUT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SNOWPACK OR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEEKEND TRIP PLANNING. WE WILL POST INFORMATION EACH FRIDAY BETWEEN 3-6PM DURING 5 SCALE FORECASTING. GO TO www.tuckerman.org AND CHECK IT OUT.

By now you should have refreshed your avalanche skills, installed some fresh high quality alkaline batteries in your avalanche beacon, and mastered its use. Don't forget your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. Avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter are now on our website, tuckerman.org.