| Posted: 8:32 a.m., Sunday, January 28, 2007 |
Huntington Ravine will have Moderate avalanche danger today. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Unstable slabs are possible in steep terrain. Use caution in steeper terrain.
Over the past 24 hours the Hermit Lake and Harvard manual snow plots each recorded a light 1.2" (3cm) of 3.3% snow while the summit picked up 1.6" (4cm) of 11.25% snow. As of 8am we are still snowing under low visibility conditions. It's quite possible with the stellar and plate snow crystals being damaged and packed into the can that a bit more snow actually fell on the summit. The other big question is the amount of upslope snow that we will receive today. There is currently no guidance from the models to estimate moisture totals or accumulation amounts. In these situations it can be between extremely difficult to impossible to predict snow totals. Snow showers can linger in the mountains while the valleys have long shut down. With cold air and upslope energy we can squeak some inches out of what appears to be negligible moisture. So... today you may see .5" (1.25") or you may see 2+" (5+cm). It's very important to stay tuned to what is happening around you and change your plans accordingly. The ratings for today are posted where we could end up today. Realize we will make slow progressive movement toward more unstable conditions through the day. Particularly on E and SE aspects as WNW and NW winds load low-density snow. Expect loading to fall on slabs that already harbor instabilities. A small new snow pocket that avalanches could step down into these deeper slabs in areas like the Lip and Sluice. In Huntington, O'Dell's and Central are the 2 locations that will see the most instability in the form of new slabs. There is a potential that they will be at the top end of the Moderate rating and push over into Considerable if snow continues through the day.
Fieldwork yesterday confirmed the Advisory was right on the mark. Unstable slabs were found in some varied locations on the south side of the Ravine like in the Chute and consistently across the SE aspects of the Lip, Sluice, and Right gully. We did witness multiple groups that did not take safe travel in unstable conditions in account at all. In the end they're load on the slope was not enough to over come the strength of the snowpack which extremely fortunate. One mistake I have seen over and over again over the past two decades is following a set of tracks of a previous traveler. Never assume the individual before you knew anything about snow stability or safe travel rules. The snow may have stayed put for that person, but will it do so for your party of 4? The area was posted at Moderate which means you can assume instability could have been worse on the U.S 5 Scale Danger Rating System. However the area held the most unstable snow on the mountain and was bolded in Saturday's Advisory. This fact should force you to consider other accent options for your group which there are many. When in doubt about your choices, ask, we're here to help your travel selection.
The Lion Head Summer Trail is still open. The Summer Trail crosses an avalanche prone slope that is still developing. We are keeping a close eye on this slope, but as always, safe travel techniques dictate traveling across this and other such slopes one at a time.
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
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