| Posted: 7:21 a.m., Thursday, February 1, 2007 |
All forecasted areas of Huntington Ravine have Low avalanche danger today. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. These isolated pockets do exist.
Another winter month has come and gone with below average snow performance. Always the optimist I try to keep the gloom of a low snow year from creeping deep into my head, but I must say it's starting to get difficult. January's numbers aren't quite tabulated yet but it appears we are only about 66.5% of normal for monthly snow. This followed a December at only 60% and an average temperature of 4.9 degrees F above normal! The data I find most interesting is the "days of snow". December had 24 days with snowfall and I anticipate January not being far behind. The critical missing piece from day to day is higher precipitation totals. We keep getting the slow trickle of an inch or two a day. These upslope events are keeping us on our toes stability wise, but what we need are higher storm totals. Even a few 5" (12.5cm) snowfalls would warm me up a bit. However, this nickel and dime way of getting precipitation does add up and with our Mt. Washington winds we have retained consistent avalanche concerns. This is a good place to segway into our current issues on the mountain.
Another 1.1" (2.75cm) over the past 24 hours with another 1+" (2.5+cm) expected today will keep our danger ratings a bit elevated for another day in Tuckerman. In Huntington high winds last night peaking around 90mph (145kph) after the new snow will keep yesterday's precipitation close to a non-issue. Today's accumulation will fall with moderate W winds between 30-50mph (48-80kph) which is perfect for loading our 2 Ravines with some new slab. In Huntington these W winds will have the greatest effect on O'Dell's, the top of Pinnacle, and Central. Isolated pockets do exist so always remember "Low" avalanche danger doesn't mean none. I don't want to overstate new slab potential today with only an additional inch expected, but keep a close eye on new amounts as an additional inch beyond the forecasted total can make a big difference. Realize today's Considerable and Moderate rating in Tuckerman are concerned about today's loading and the thin touchy slabs already on the slope. Any new slabs will be loading on already unstable areas like the Lip, Sluice, and below the Headwall ice. As we have mentioned before these low daily totals don't stand up and scream "avalanche!!" quite like a 12" (30cm) storm so slabs can catch you asleep at the wheel. Remember to keep your avalanche eyes open when nature's clues aren't as obvious. Most avalanche accidents around the world occur under a Moderate or Considerable danger rating. This happens because snow instability doesn't always stand out and the human desire to have fun overpowers their survival instincts so stay alert. As tomorrow moves in we could see 2-4" (5-10cm) from a system that is moving to the south of us so the beginning of the weekend could have continued avalanche problems. As the system passes it will suck in more arctic air plunging the summits deep into the negative numbers. Temperatures should warm a bit from very cold air on Sunday and Monday, but should remain below 0 F for most of next week.
The Lion Head Summer Trail is still open. The Summer Trail crosses an avalanche prone slope that is still developing. We are keeping a close eye on this slope, but as always, safe travel techniques dictate traveling across this and other such slopes one at a time.
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
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