Huntington Ravine has Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

Before we get into the big news of the storm on its way for tomorrow, we should discuss what is going on today on the mountain. As I write this morning, the sky is blue and the wind is moving some snow down over the ice in the center of the Headwall and other areas. This is creating some loading and numerous small sluffs in the Headwall, Lip, and Sluice. It's quite hypnotic to watch as the sluffs slowly move down the slope. This snow is coming from the 1.1in (2.8cm) of 8% density snow received on the Summit yesterday. By noon yesterday Hermit Lake had received 1.6in (4cm) of lighter density snow, which then got blown around by the wind later in the day. Regardless of which measurement we use, there is still .09in (.23cm) of frozen water that either has moved or is available to be moved by the wind. Areas around the Lip have just come down from Considerable yesterday, and are at the upper end of the Moderate rating. New loading should subside early today as winds taper off, reducing the potential for natural activity. However, human triggered avalanche potential certainly exists in Moderate areas today.

Both Hillman's Highway and Left Gully in Tuckerman, and all of Huntington Ravine have been heavily scoured by the winds. You'll find harder surface conditions in these areas. Isolated pockets are most likely to be found on SE aspects.

The storm system that is coming into the area tonight and lasting through Thursday morning will bring elevated avalanche danger. We are expecting to be posting either High or Extreme avalanche danger, depending on exactly how things pan out. Currently, NOAA is giving us storm totals of 12 to 18 inches (30-46cm) in the mountains, and slightly less as you move south. This is based on a 10:1 ratio of snow to water. I'm hoping to see a 5:1 ratio, which not only doubles the number of inches but also makes for lighter powder! Given the history of Nor'easters and the types of snow they usually drop, I may be overly optimistic. The Summit observers, however, don't rule out the possibility for 20-25 inches (51-63cm) due to the orographic effects in the mountains. The winds will play an important role in what actually happens with our avalanche cycle. They will be strong and from the SE as the storm begins, then moving to the NW after midnight tomorrow. We'll have to see when these shifts take place and how much snow has fallen at the time to get a better handle on where we will see the greatest potential for avalanche activity. If you're thinking of heading to the mountains, tonight might be a good time to get in the car and head over here, rather than waiting until the roads are covered with snow. Wouldn't it be nice to be stuck up here this week? Resort skiing or the Sherburne will be where it's at for a couple days until our snowpack begins to settle down some.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route. Crampons, an ice axe, and the ability to properly use this equipment are necessary for safe travel on this route.