Denial. It can only last so long. How can this be happening you're probably asking yourself? How can we go from a bleak winter of an inch or two at a time and then get slapped by the storm of winter's past? Well it's here you can't deny it any longer. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the next 24 hours as 18-30" (45-75cm) of snow move into the mountains. Everything still seems to be right on schedule for this to become a reality. One change appears to be the drop in new snow density. Light snow will be easy to move around and load into a variety of aspects over the next 2 days. Heavier density snow near the end of the storm looks to remain closer to the coast where rain may occur. There is quite a bit of energy associated with this event, as thunderstorms are possible at the height of this afternoon's snowfall. We may see periods of 2" of snow an hour during this period creating blizzard conditions due to high gusty winds. Totals during day light hours today run from 10-16" (25-32.5cm) with the balance falling overnight into tomorrow morning. Usually this amount of snow would generate an Extreme avalanche forecast. However the wind direction won't be as cooperative as it could to generate maximum loading in the Ravines. Models are in agreement as of the last run that winds will hang from the SE direction and slowly progress to the E then NE tonight. Tomorrow morning they will quickly move to the NW around daybreak and progress to the W where they will remain. This will cause N facing aspects to receive the most direct loading. Dodge's drop, some of Hillman's, some of Left gully, and South Gully in Huntington are several examples. Numerous other locations will be heavily cross-loaded such as the Chute, across the Headwall, O'Dell's, Pinnacle, and Central gully. Our southern aspects will get direct wind which will create unstable slab conditions with this amount of snow, but less so than the previously mentioned areas. As the winds swing through the N tomorrow morning with the passing low pressure these southern aspects will get a brief period of direct loading.

We will certainly lose quite a bit of snow over the western side of the mountain today. Winds may hit 100mph (160kph) late today and tonight. This will cause the eastern Ravines to pick up less than the desired amount of snow which usually occurs during Nor'easters, but this event's winds are projected to be quite high. I'm sure our friends at Wildcat Mountain are cheering, as their western aspect will lead to a snow bounty of great wealth. With all that said there will still be pleennnnnty of snow to move into the 2 Ravines when the westerly winds arrive and increase tomorrow. Expect a High or Extreme avalanche danger on Thursday with natural avalanche cycles becoming more prevalent than today. If this storm plays out as expected, of which I have a high degree of confidence, expect plenty of natural avalanche activity over the next 2-3 days. I am hoping for a new landscape in the Ravines eliminating all our lovely rocks and brush. Believe it not there are some other storms developing on the heels of this system, but we'll talk about them in a couple of days.

The Lion Head Winter Route is open. This is a steep and challenging route. Crampons, an ice axe, and the ability to properly use this equipment are necessary for safe travel on this route.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is packed edge to edge with some rocks, brush and waterbars still showing. This should change substantially today with heavy snow.